Belarus Belarus Events
Belarus is one of the few remaining states in the former Soviet Union that has not experienced a popular revolution since 1990. Belarus has risen from its Soviet slumber and set out for democracy, but there revolutionary fervor is growing.
The sympathy shown to the demonstrators by the Baltic and Polish neighbours had some impact on Belarus. Putin was unsuccessful in Ukraine, and now he may be trying the same thing in Belarus, which is more closely tied to Russia, particularly economically, than neighboring Ukraine. Efforts to manage power transition in Belarus suggest that valuable lessons have been learned from Russia's experience in neighboring countries like Ukraine and Georgia.
While Lukashenko's future intentions remain surrounded by characteristic ambiguity, Lavrov's recent visit to Minsk left no doubt that Russia has lost patience with the Belarusian dictator and has no intention of providing unlimited support. President Vladimir Putin has long expressed concern about the close ties with former Soviet republics, which he has rejected in an effort to absorb Belarus. There are already signs that Moscow's support for Lukahenko is waning, especially in the wake of recent protests against his rule.
Early perceptions of Lukashenko's political vulnerability, in turn, have heightened fears that the Kremlin has become the new kingmaker in Minsk.
For Russia, the crisis in Belarus caused by the results of the presidential elections in August is geopolitical. Moscow may not be openly stating its geopolitical calculus, but in its eyes, Belarus's problem is similar to the uprisings in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan, and poses a similar problem in the long run. According to some international analysts, this issue has become a serious geopolitical game, even if the protests against Belarus are not the direct result of the presidential elections in August, but rather a reaction to them.
The events in Minsk have great geopolitical significance, as one would expect in a state between Russia and Europe. There is a zone less than 100 km long between the region of Northwest Belarus and Kaliningrad, Russia. It is therefore the Western Front between Belarus and Ukraine that is an important theatre for Moscow. Let us compare two important international players, which constitute the geopolitical factors that we will discuss.
The history of the state has had a series of difficult events and challenges for the Belarusian people, which led to Belarus's independence and sovereignty.
When pro-democracy protests erupted after a flawed presidential election, Russia intervened to prevent the regime's collapse. Many rightly believe that this was an attempt to get Russians to support Lukashenko, but the influence of the Russian media is quite large. The average citizen receives information from it and believes that Soviet factories and plants in Belarus are maintained, that people have jobs, that the roads are spotlessly clean and that Belarusian products are exported to Kyrgyzstan, because this is Belarus after all. The V3 (Visegrad Hungary) rehabilitated itself when, days after the secret inauguration of a usurper, it refused to recognize him as the current president.
The politically active population is following events in Belarus with great interest, whether for different ideas about the country or for political reasons.
Russians understand that, in theory, an Armenian-style revolution could take place in Belarus, opening the country more to Europe, thereby creating a more stable and stable political system than that created in Ukraine in 2014. It could also be that Moscow orchestrates a favorable transition for Belarus. The current incarcerated presidential candidate constantly stresses that his activities are not directed against Russia, but that he is committed to the many links that Belarus still maintains with Russia. He has already made it clear that Belarus will not break up, that it is not Russia's, and will never be Russia, "he said.
President Alexander Lukashenko has stated that he is prepared to share power in Belarus with the opposition, as well as with Russia, the United States and the European Union. He said that the real winners of the election were prominent Belarusian opposition activists, who played a major role in the recent events in Belarus and who were not threatened by the regime.
The ongoing protests are the longest in Belarus's history and show that the nation does not want to bow to them, "he said. In June, David Axelrod, a Washington-based political analyst and former US ambassador to Belarus, called the protests in Belarus the most unusual.
Experts in Kazakhstan believe that the situation in Belarus has created a "post-Soviet" region in the post-Soviet area. Kaliev said that since the last Maidan in Ukraine, neighboring Belarus has been quiet and Kazakhstan has not felt the effects of the revolution in Kyrgyzstan.
The elections and protests in Belarus have attracted maximum attention from both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz people. The BAJ reported that the police in Minsk arrested the leader of the opposition party, the Communist Party of Belarus, Alexander Dschokharov, and several of his supporters. Kyrgyz online media have also actively reported on the events in Kazakhstan, both as demonstrators and as officials and authorities. Since the start of mass protests, they have focused on protests against the government of President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his party.